Mortgage rates hit highest mark since mid-December

Mortgage rates surged to their highest point in over two months, as investors revised their forecasts based on new economic data and the anticipated timeline for changes in Federal Reserve policy, according to Freddie Mac. 

The 30-year fixed-rate average jumped up 13 basis points to finish at 6.9% for the period ending Feb. 22 in Freddie Mac' Primary Mortgage Market Survey. One week earlier, the 30-year average came in at 6.77%, while for the same seven-day period in 2022, the rate stood at 6.5%. 

At the same time, the 15-year average saw an even steeper week-over-week increase, rising 17 basis points to 6.29% from 6.12%. In the same period, a year ago the average rate came in at 5.76%.

In February, the 30-year rate accelerated by 27 basis points as the most recent data showed the U.S. economy to be more robust than what government officials would prefer. February's movement comes after a sustained early winter decline in interest rates, followed by a period of moderation. 

"Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the

path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates," said Sam Khater, Freddie

Mac's chief economist, in a press release.

The release of minutes this week from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting points to mortgage rates staying elevated or rising even higher in the near future. Minutes showed widespread agreement among central bank officials that a reduction in the federal funds rate would have to wait until inflation ticked down closer to an acceptable level.

Late 2023 comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had led to hopes among some investors that the initial cut could come as early as March. The enthusiasm helped drive mortgage rates down in December, but markets are now readjusting, according to Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.

"Although inflation has been easing toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, consumer and producer price inflation accelerated in January, erasing any doubts that the first Fed rate cuts will likely have to be postponed," he said in a research statement released on Wednesday. 

The 10-year Treasury yield, which tends to correspond to mortgage rates, also headed higher over the past week. After closing at 4.24% on Feb. 15, it had risen to 4.33% on Thursday morning. 

The potential for rates to return above 7% again led to a steep fall in loan application volumes over the past week according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. It also spells unwelcome news for aspiring buyers and lenders, who had seen borrowers coming back early in the year after a challenging 2023. The last time the 30-year rate averaged more than 7% was in early December, when it landed at 7.03%.  

"Historically, the combination of a vibrant economy and modestly higher rates did not meaningfully impact the housing market," Khater said. "The current cycle is different than historical norms, as housing affordability is so low that good economic news equates to bad news for home buyers, who are sensitive to even minor shifts in affordability."

Other industry rate trackers showed similar-sized upward movements in the 30-year rate in the past several days, with Zillow reporting the average at 6.75% on Thursday morning. The rate climbed higher from last week's average of 6.65%.  

Optimal Blue's product and pricing engine reported the 30-year conforming average as 6.93% at the close of business Wednesday, rising 12 basis points from 6.81% on Feb 15.