NABE Forecast: Rates Won't Rise Much This Year

Mortgage rates will rise no more than 50 basis points after the Federal Reserve stops purchasing agency MBS in March, according to a new survey of business economists. "Three-quarters of the panelists believe mortgage interest rates will increase 50 basis points or less," a summary of the survey results says. The 48 professional forecasters surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics generally say economic expansion is on a "firm track" and the rebound in the housing market is "ongoing and sustainable." The economists expect housing starts will hit 730,000 this year, up from 550,000 in 2009. And starts will jump to 1 million units in 2011. House prices will rise 1.6% this year and 2.6% in 2011, based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency housing price index. "Such increases would barely keep up with inflation," the survey says. The February survey does not include a forecast for mortgage rates. However, the economists see the 10-year Treasury rate drifting upward to 4.25% by yearend and 4.5% by the second quarter of 2011.