Mortgage origination volume in 2013 will top $1.7 trillion by yearend but fall under $1.2 trillion in 2014 as refinancing activity dries up, the Mortgage Bankers Association says. That represents an expected decline of 32%.

There will be an improving economy and growth in the job market, as the gross domestic product is expected to end 2013 at 1.8%, and then increase to 2.4% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015, says MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann. This should help the purchase market. In 2014, purchase loans should top $723 billion.

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