UWM Holdings put out a press release late on March 9, which it said was timed in advance of the
"Even without the Two Harbors transaction, we now expect our total revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to be between $800 million and $900 million, and for fiscal year 2026 to be between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion," UWM Chairman, President and CEO Mat Ishbia said in the release.
In its
"Further, our investments in AI are now implemented and working in multiple areas to make our team members materially more efficient," he continued. "As such, we remain confident in handling two to three times our current volume while avoiding the need to replace team members who depart through natural attrition."
What might be driving this announcement is how UWM's stock price has declined since the deal was announced on Dec. 17. The previous day, UWM closed at $5.12 per share. After the deal was publicized, UWM fell to $4.81. Its consideration is a fixed exchange ratio of 2.33 times Two Harbors shares for each share of UWM.
UWM sent its letter on March 9, following its stock closing at $3.89 per share; during the day it fell to a 52-week low of $3.64, according to Yahoo Finance. The next morning it opened at $4.09.
On Dec. 17, Two Harbors, which is branded as Two, closed at $11.11 per share. But by March 9, its price slipped to a $9.33 per share close, before opening the following morning after the UWM release at $9.64.
BTIG remains relatively confident that Two Harbors shareholders will approve the merger, analyst Eric Hagen wrote after the latest UWM announcement. But the recent stock price volatility has reduced the odds compared to when the deal was initially announced.
While Hagen sees UWM's stock being able to rebound over 10% fairly quickly if volatility stabilizes, it also now "in earshot of revisiting its all-time low since becoming a public company."
Two has more valuation sensitivity in both directions than UWM Holdings, BTIG said. But it "hinges on the approval of the merger vote, which is why it's somewhat counterintuitive to us that Two shareholders might choose to veto," Hagen said.
