Housing inventory

Residential starts increased 7% last month after falling by the most in over a year in August, according to government data released Wednesday.

The triple threat of tight supply, elevated prices and historically high mortgage rates continues to weigh on sales, even as home builders are offering incentives to potential buyers.

Contract closings decreased 0.7% from a month earlier to a 4.04 million annualized pace, National Association of Realtors data showed Thursday.

On average since 1970, new home sales volumes decline 7% month-over-month in September and 13% quarter-over-quarter in the final months of the year, according to analysts. 

Loan applications for single-family constructions jumped for the seventh month in a row, with increasing interest coming from first-time buyers, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But some of the noise beneath the data suggests a possible transition might be underway, according to analysts.

Purchases of new single-family homes increased 4.4% to an annualized 714,000 pace after downward revisions to prior months, government data showed Wednesday.

The share is the largest on record for a second quarter, according to data from Redfin.

While the share is slightly lower than at the start of 2023, the market is not expected to slip back to lower pre-pandemic levels, CoreLogic said.

Residential starts increased 3.9% last month to a 1.45 million annualized rate, according to government data released Wednesday.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo gauge decreased six points to a three-month low of 50. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The cohort is outperforming the broader market — up more than 50% year-to-date versus the S&P 500's 18% gain. 

Homeowners with higher rates willing to sell in the next few years are mitigating the pricey housing market by purchasing points or pursuing smaller properties.

The sector is well-positioned for further volume growth into next year, analysts led by Anthony Pettinari said in a note to clients Monday.

Purchases of new single-family homes fell 2.5% to an annualized 697,000 pace after a downward revision to the prior month, government data showed Wednesday.

"I do believe you'll begin to see some improvement, or increases, in new housing as we head into the back half of the year," Chief Financial Officer Jim Peters said in an interview. "We're hearing optimistic stuff from the builders we deal with."

The nation's most flood-prone counties experienced a net influx of about 400,000 people in 2021 and 2022, Redfin found.

Contract closings declined 3.3% to a 4.16 million annualized pace, roughly in line with economists' forecasts, National Association of Realtors data showed Thursday.

Residential starts fell 8% last month to a 1.43 million annualized rate, according to government data released Wednesday.

About 14 out of every 1,000 US homes changed hands during this period, down from 19 in the same period during 2019, according to the real estate brokerage's report examining housing turnover since the pandemic.