Investments

A fresh jump in oil prices on Thursday lifted five- to 30-year Treasury yields to new multiyear highs, with the 30-year rising to levels just shy of 5.5%, the highest since 2004.

The losses in the US Treasuries market intensified on Wednesday as robust economic data and a weak auction drove yields across most maturities to the highest levels in almost two decades.

Investors in the US Treasury market are shifting their focus to owning shorter-dated government bonds, a bet that the Federal Reserve will eventually emerge victorious in its fight against inflation.

The yield on 10-year notes has climbed almost 20 basis points this week to trade just below the psychologically-important level, which may attract dip buyers but also risks triggering further selling that could spill over into global markets.

Treasuries extended an earlier decline after the announcement, with the yield on 10-year notes up about 6 basis points to 4.85% as of early afternoon in New York. They earlier hit their highest level since 2023.

With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a 19-month high, mortgage industry executives are bracing for a tougher-than-usual end of year.

"The direction of travel is going to be higher yields from here," said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen. "Term premium likely has to be higher to compensate for this confluence of risks." 

After Warsh reiterated his commitment to bringing down inflation in a highly anticipated speech on Friday, swaps traders see a rate hike as more likely than not at the central bank's next decision in mid-September.

Vacancy numbers leveled off this quarter, but the share among units owned by institutional investors is more than double the overall national rate, Attom said.

As Treasury market volatility strains IMB funding, buying a bank or insurer offers permanent capital and stronger ratings, according to the Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

Bond investors will zero in on Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, with a further selloff in long-dated Treasuries at stake as markets look for clues on the Federal Reserve chairman's response to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns.

A proposed seven-year mandatory selloff rule aimed at institutional investors was a factor in halting momentum for new BTR development, NAHB said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on CNBC Thursday that he and Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought have been tasked with developing a fiscal plan to reduce government spending.

Just two weeks after releasing its planned schedule for buybacks this quarter, the Treasury Department on Wednesday said it's "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations" for securities dated from the 10-year to the 30-year sector. 

While domestic factors have a role in each market, fears that persistent geopolitical turmoil will make economies more prone to supply shocks and inflationary pressures are driving up yields. 

As the AI borrowing spree keeps accelerating, blowing past Wall Street's forecasts, the spillover effect is, many investors and analysts agree, playing a growing role by taxing the market's ability to absorb so much debt.

A new bill would increase the capacity of state and local housing finance agencies to issue tax-free municipal housing bonds by exempting them from the PAB cap.

The arm of the asset management giant is paying over $100 million for the Cherry Hill business started in part with Freedom Mortgage over a decade ago.

Jeffrey Cleveland, Managing Director and Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel, will discuss the FOMC meeting, the new SEP and Chair Warsh's press conference.

An industry sentiment index hit a new low, with 45% of investors saying the current business environment has worsened compared to a year ago.