Treasury bonds

The surprisingly strong U.S. economy has driven Treasury yields to the highest since late November as investors dial back bets on interest-rate cuts, wagering that policymakers will be wary of easing policy prematurely.

Bond investors who were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates this week are painfully surrendering to a higher-for-longer reality and a murky path forward for the market.

Market participants have been so focused on determining when and how much the Federal Reserve will slow its balance-sheet unwind that they haven't even started to consider another wrinkle: the composition of the U.S. central bank's assets.

Wall Street saw another busy session of bond sales as issuers looked to borrow before key economic data later this week.

In the derivatives markets, they've started pricing in that the Fed will carry out just four — or five at the most — quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, only slightly more than the three penciled in by policymakers.

Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.

The benchmark 10-year yield rose as much as nine basis points to 3.97%.

The year-end yield on the bond, a global anchor for markets and U.S. mortgage rates, is the culmination of a stunning rebound for Treasuries.

The Federal Reserve will need to start hitting the brakes on the unwind of its balance sheet as the outlook for the central bank's reserves grows increasingly murky, according to Wrightson ICAP.  

The rally in Treasuries ahead of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut may only just be getting started, according to Bank of America Corp. research.