It's been slim pickings inside the Cape Cod housing market for quite a while, the past year at least.
The inventory of properties for sale across the region in 2019 plummeted by more than 18%, versus the previous year, according to newly released, annual data from the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors.
Through last year every town covered by the association's statistical reports saw declines in the number of homes for sale, except Orleans, which posted a 25% gain over 2018.
The most substantial drops were seen in Dennis, 36.4%, followed by Harwich, 32% and Falmouth, 21%.
Across the Cape and Islands the end-of-year inventory of available properties in 2019 was 1,723, compared to 2,070 in 2018. The number is more stark when compared with earlier years; for example, in 2015 the end-of-year inventory was 3,276.
Joe Arnao, area manager for the Lower and Outer Cape at the William Ravies real estate agency, said there are plenty of people who want to sell, and downsize from a bigger house, but can't find an appropriate/affordable smaller house or condo to move into.
Demand, he noted, is pushing up prices on smaller properties, affecting not only the downsizers but also those looking to buy their first home.
There is a market of people ready to move up, into those bigger houses, he said, but the inventory isn't there.
"It's a stalemate," said Arnao.
There is a lot of demand, he added.
"We have three sets of buyers: investors, primary homeowners and second homeowners; there's a convergence. We've seen houses under $500,000, and in the Outer Cape into the $600,000s, where multiple offers are being made," he said, adding that off-Cape investors arrive with cash in hand.
That's a big challenge for local home buyers who need a contingency contract, an agreement that allows time for a buyer's existing property to sell before closing the deal on a new purchase, he said.
But the lack of inventory is not just a real estate industry dilemma, Arnao indicated. "The town governments need to start creating more housing, or there won't be anyplace for [working people] to live," he said.
Ryan Castle, CEO of the real estate association, agrees. He said in a statement accompanying the 2019 report that Cape towns need to "get serious about solving our housing supply and affordability problem. This is why we have launched our Housing Blueprint for improving availability and affordability in our region."
The Housing Blueprint urges state lawmakers to pass the H.O.M.E. Bill (H.187, S.96), which reforms zoning in Massachusetts to increase the production of housing units, and the blueprint asks towns to lift seasonal restrictions on units that could be occupied year-round, among other ideas.
Prices up
With the low inventory in 2019 came a 2.5% increase, Cape and Islands-wide, in median sale price; the year-end figure was $410,000, the data shows.
The median sale price rose year-over-year in every town on Cape Cod except for Brewster and Eastham, which saw declines of 3.5% and 2.1%, respectively, according to the association.
Truro saw the biggest jump, reaping a 30% hike in median price, followed by Provincetown and Dennis, with increases of 8% and 7.5%, respectively.
The association said that low interest rates continue to buoy the market, increasing buying power even in an environment with limited inventory and high median sale price.
"Demand for Cape Cod real estate has remained consistently high with inventory shrinking, resulting in an efficient sales environment for properly priced homes. The result is a robust market for sellers who are realistic about sales price and home condition. Looking forward, the biggest condition that could impact the market and further exacerbate the region's affordability crisis is that there may simply not be enough housing stock on the market to meet the demand," the association explained in its report.
Cape buyers are beginning to demonstrate increased price sensitivity, it added, "eschewing traditionally higher priced towns, or towns that have posted large recent sale price increases, for neighboring towns," where they can get more for their money.
As spring nears, real estate agents and potential buyers are hoping that inventory will become more robust.
Time to sell?
Marie Kelly, an agent with Cape Cod Oceanview Realty, in South Orleans, says the best time to list a house for sale on the Cape is right about now.
"Examining the last three years of sales data, the most popular months for closings on the Cape are consistently May and June. Home sales that closed in May or June most likely went under agreement between mid-March and mid-May, making late-winter through mid-spring the busiest time for buyer activity," she says.
While the summer is surely the height of our tourist season, it is not when most home sales occur, nor is it when most homes go under agreement, adds Kelly.
"So what does this mean for sellers? It means you should get your home on the market by April 1 or even sooner to participate in the best buying season," she advises in her blog on the agency's web site.
After May and June, the next consistently popular month for real estate closings on the Cape has been October. And those sales most likely went under agreement from late August through September, she notes.
August and November were also strong months in different years, she says, while the fewest closings consistently take place in February followed by January.
