Some 3 million houses – two to three years worth of production – weren't built as a result of the housing recession, according to the National Association of Home Builders' chief prognosticator.
Had there not been a boom and a corresponding bust, builders would have produced 3 million new single and multi-family units more than they actually did, NAHB chief economist David Crowe said at the National Housing and Rehabilitation Association's annual meeting in Bonita Springs, Fla.
Based on the underlying demographics, Crowe said, "we are now way behind on production. Some states are more than a year behind."
Crowe didn't suggest how long it would take home builders to catch up once the new home market turns positive. But he did say there's plenty of pent-up demand awaiting the recovery.
"They're still here," the economist said of the people who have yet to form households. "They didn't go away. A 30-year-old can't live in his parent's basement forever. Eventually, they're going to rent or buy something."
For that reason alone, Crowe is looking for a "slow and steady" rebound in both the single and multi-family sectors. On the single-family side of the ledger, he is calling for an 18% increase in starts this year (to 555,000) and a 47% jump in 2012 (to 814,000). And for the multi-family sector, he expects a 15% increase this year (to 133,000) and a 45% boost next year (to 193,000).
The percentages may sound big, he told the conference, but that's only because starts are rising from such an extremely low level. "Single-family starts will only be at their 2007 level next year," he pointed out. "And at 100,000 units, apartment builders are not even making up for units that we've lost through demolition and obsolescence."
