Consumer confidence in housing market sees slight improvement

Consumer confidence levels in the housing market remain low, according to Fannie Mae.

The government-sponsored entity's Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which measures consumer perceptions on housing, increased only marginally this month.

The index reached 66 points after a small bump of 0.4 points since June. It's up 1.2 points from last year.

"Confidence in the housing market appears to have plateaued at a relatively low level, suggesting that many consumers may be coming to terms with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices," Fannie Mae's chief economist Doug Duncan said in a press release. 

Earlier this year, the index increased by 8.8 points in two months, a bigger-than-normal seasonal swing towards housing market optimism. It dipped last month, and now the swing has slowed to a crawl.

The HPSI says 78% of consumers think it's a bad time to buy a house right now, fewer than last month's 80%. Slightly more respondents think it's a bad time to sell as well — the measure went from 34% last month to 36%.

The biggest share of respondents, 37%, think home prices will remain the same in the next 12 months. 36% think they'll go up. 

Prices are lower than last year, but far above 2021 and 2020 numbers, according to Redfin data. The median sale price hit $383,800 July 2.

Only 47% think mortgage rates will increase and 36% think they'll stay the same, a much more positive outlook than last year, when 67% thought they'd increase and 21% thought they'd stay the same.

Rates just hit a 2023 high of 6.81%, continuing their overall upward trend since last year.

"This seems to signal that consumers are adapting to the idea that higher mortgage rates will likely stick around for the foreseeable future," Duncan said.

Employment remained unchanged: 77% were not concerned about losing their jobs, the same as last month. Slightly more respondents, 71% compared to 67%, said their income is the same as it was last year.

Jobs, including those in the mortgage industry, have trended down in the past two years, but hiring and separation rates are now both increasing modestly according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Duncan said Fannie Mae forecasts slowing home sales for the rest of the year "due to ongoing affordability constraints and lack of housing supply."

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