Fitch Tallies CREL CDO Performance; Anticipates Downgrades

Fitch recorded a decline in commercial real estate loan collateralized debt obligation delinquencies in July but said the figure was misleading and indicated that there may be significant downgrades to all Fitch rated CREL CDOs in the coming months. Fitch said it expects to see high default rates in the sector "as these loans mature into the trough of the current commercial real estate cycle." As a result, the rating agency is finalizing its review methodology for the sector and believes this will result in several downgrades. In July, delinquencies had dropped to 7.6% from 8.2% in June, according to Fitch's CREL CDO Delinquency Index, but the decrease reflected an average of 2.7% of the CDO par balance being lost in distressed asset sales and discounted payoffs. "Had the loans, which were resolved at a loss over the past three months ... remained in the transactions, the CREL DI would have exceeded 9%," Fitch said.