Budget for 6.3% rates through 2027, Fannie Mae warns

Fannie Mae continues to downgrade its mortgage forecasts as it foresees a higher-for-longer mortgage rate environment.

The government-sponsored enterprise reduced its estimate for single-family originations this year by 2%, to $2.298 trillion, according to its Wednesday release. While the projection is still well ahead of last year's over $1.9 trillion in total single-family origination, Fannie Mae's forecasts have soured in recent months as mortgage rates have risen.

The GSE economists are predicting the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage to cling to 6.3% in 2026 and 2027, unchanged from their June outlook. The average 30-year FRM sits around 6.5% today, as it's hovered in that range since a spring surge.

Fannie Mae is expecting purchase volume to hit $1.446 trillion this year, and refinance volume to reach $852 billion, both downgrades from the June forecast. Both categories are expected to rise next year with total single-family origination volume projected at $2.432 trillion in 2027.

The macroeconomic outlook

The GSE stopped issuing extended commentary around its predictions last year, but it still hinted at its macroeconomic views.

The economists are forecasting the Consumer Price Index to end 2026 around 3.3%, and 2.1% in 2027, an easing from their June predictions. While inflation currently remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target to adjust its federal funds rate, the CPI slowed slightly in June to 3.5%.

Fannie Mae is expecting the fed funds rate to remain in place at 3.6% over the next two years. While most experts believe the next Fed move will be a rate cut next year, a growing number are anticipating a short-term increase. 

The macroeconomic impact on mortgage activity is mixed. Although mortgage rates have remained elevated since the onset of the Iran War in March, the housing market has shown some resiliency. 

Mortgage credit has tightened this summer, but remains well above levels the same time a year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association recently reported. Buying activity also heated up to close the spring market, as non-conforming lending hit its highest share of monthly lock activity in several years last month, Optimal Blue reported.