Home prices are up… depending on where you look

Home prices increased nationwide on a seasonally adjusted basis, a pair of widely followed metrics agree, although they vary on the size of the increase.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index hit another high in December at 440.36, up from 439.72 in November, a change of 0.1. Price rose 0.8% on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

This compares with a revised increase of 0.7% between October and November.

Regional variations range from a price decline of 0.1% in the East South Central and West South Central states, to gains of 1.1% in the mid-Atlantic states.

For the fourth quarter, prices grew by 0.8% from the third quarter; the latter is the period used by the FHFA to set the conforming loan limits.

A bill to end the government-sponsored enterprise conservatorships that is planned to be introduced into the House of Representatives is contemplating switching how the limits are set to be based on income, discussions in a recent subcommittee hearing said.

Meanwhile, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national home price index reported a 0.4% seasonally adjusted month-to-month increase; take out those adjustments, prices declined 0.3% during the period.

"With December's results, we can now assess 2025's full-year performance in historical context," says Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices in a press release.

It was a tale of two halves of the year, Godec continued. For the first half of the year, prices rose 2.6%, but between July and December, they declined on a nominal basis by 1.3%.

"National home prices grew just 1.3% for the year — the weakest full-year gain since 2011, when prices fell 3.9%, and 5.3 percentage points below the 6.6% 10-year annual average," Godec said. "Even excluding 2021's near-20% Covid-era surge, the 10-year average annual gain stands at 5.2%, still 3.9 percentage points ahead of this year's result."

A look at the 20 cities which make up one of the sub-indices shows the regional variations also noted in the FHFA numbers.

"Historically steady Midwest and Northeast markets continued to outperform as Sun Belt markets that surged during the pandemic cycle extended their correction," Godec said.

Chicago and New York had over 5% annual increases, while Phoenix, Dallas and Miami reported prices dropped by 1.5%.

The FHFA HPI reported a 1.8% annual increase.

Previously, Zillow reported its Home Value Index was down 0.4% between December and January, marking six months of declines.

Zillow's forecast calls for home values to grow 0.9% annually through the end of 2026.

"With mortgage rates near 6%, a typical household has gained more than $30,000 in buying power over the past year," Kara Ng, Zillow senior economist, said in a statement sent in advance of the Case-Shiller report.

"That boost brings tens of thousands more homes within reach and can mean the difference between settling and choosing," Ng said. "This is a step in the right direction, but there is a long way to go, which is why it's encouraging to see a bipartisan emphasis on making homeownership more accessible."

The First American Real House Price Index, which measures affordability, reported a 9% annual increase in December as those prices fell 0.6 percent from November.

"Preliminary January data suggest that improvement has continued into early 2026," First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming added in a press release. "The improvement was broad-based, with all 50 states and 48 of the top 50 markets posting annual gains."

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