National house prices will continue to decline through the first half of 2011, but local markets will experience varying degrees of decreases, according to Moody's Analytics.
Not surprisingly, the forecast projects that the markets with higher levels of real estate owned inventory will experience greater declines in house prices—so while markets like Las Vegas, Fort Lauderdale, and Riverside, Calif. will continue to see significant price declines, Austin, Texas and Albany, New York will experience less severe declines because those markets have fewer REO properties for sale and their housing markets are more stable.
The housing market is having a tough time shaking off its malaise, and a true recovery in another six to 12 months away, according to Celia Chen, a Moody's Analytics senior director.
The impact of the still-high national REO inventory and continued slow economic growth won't let up on housing until the second half of 2011, Chen added.
The forecast is based on foreclosure data from RealtyTrac and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Moody's said that based on RealtyTrac data, the national REO inventory will peak in 2011 at 971,000 properties, 16% above 2010 projections.
