Mortgage rates decline as economy shows signs of slowing

Thirty-year mortgage rates declined over the past week, as research data showed signs of economic slowing. 

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.28% for the seven-day period ending April 6, falling for the fourth week in a row, according to Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A week earlier, the average came in at 6.32%, and in the same time frame a year ago, it stood at 4.72%.

"Mortgage rates continue to trend down entering the traditional spring home buying season," said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater in a press release. 

At the same time, though, the 15-year mortgage average jumped 8 basis points week over week to 5.64% from 5.56%, heading upward for the first time in almost a month. In the same period last year, the 15-year average was at 3.91%.

Movement of the 30-year rate went in the same direction as the 10-year Treasury yield after diverging a week ago amid economic uncertainty in the aftermath of recent banking turmoil. After closing at 3.55% on March 30, yields dropped throughout much of the week to open at 3.31% Thursday morning. Mortgage rates typically rise and fall in tandem with 10-year yields.

Recent economic data may point to further softening of mortgage rates ahead. Last week's personal consumption expenditures price index came in lower than expected, signaling that the Federal Reserve could suspend hikes of the federal funds rate in the inflation fight. The central bank uses the PCE index to gauge inflation levels in making policy decisions. 

Some signs also point to slowing economic activity elsewhere, which would also have a disinflationary effect, according to Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.

"Up until now, a strong labor market supported consumer spending. However, February's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed a notable decline in hiring and quits, indicating a cooling of the labor market," she said in a statement.

"These signals suggest that consumer price inflation is likely to cool, and as inflation cools, the yield on longer-term rates — including mortgage rates — is also expected to fall."

Markets and investors will be looking closely at the next release of the Consumer Price Index on April 12 for clues on the direction rates may head.

At the same time, comments from Federal Reserve officials offer few hints of what may be in store for monetary policy. While some non voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee said rates needed to remain elevated in order to bring inflation to its target level, others sounded more uncertain on near-term strategy. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for early May.

Despite the recent slide in the 30-year average, relief is proving to be limited for a large segment of buyers at a time of year when interest is expected to grow, according to Khater. "Unfortunately, those in the market to buy are facing a number of challenges, not the least of which is the low inventory of homes for sale, especially for aspiring first-time home buyers."

Similar findings have been reported by real estate companies over the past month, including Zillow and Redfin, indicating a slowdown in the housing market is failing to provide enough affordable housing to meet a rise in demand.