NABE Sees a Major Spike in Housing Starts Next Year

Housing starts will jump 38% next year and finally contribute to economic growth as the housing sector breaks out of a three-year spiral, according to a new National Association of Business Economists survey. In the consensus opinion of 44 NABE members, housing starts will hit 800,000 in 2010 compared to 580,000 this year. House prices will rise too. Based on the Federal Housing Finance house price index, prices will increase 2% next year, after falling 3.4% in 2009. "The nascent housing recovery will gather momentum and deliver robust growth in 2010, albeit from a depressed level," NABE said in a summary. The survey results show wide disagreement on the outlook for housing, however. The five most optimistic economists see housing starts hitting 920,000 in 2010 and prices jumping 6.2%. The most pessimistic five see prices falling 5.1% with housing starts essentially flat at 600,000.