Discounted home asking prices "surprisingly common" today

An "unseasonably high" percentage of reduced asking prices reflect the state of the current housing market, but the outlook for next year still shows home values increasing, according to a new survey of economists.

The impact of a rapid surge in mortgage rates during the early fall contributed to 22.6% of home sellers slashing listing prices in November, a Zillow market report noted. While the share decreased from 25% from October, it stood out as a surprise compared to traditional seasonal patterns. 

The higher-than-typical portion of price cuts led home values downward by 0.4% between October and November, Zillow found. Nationwide, home prices were still higher by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, with the typical value at $347,415, it said.

Conditions currently favor the off-season buyer, with "a good chance" they will have room to negotiate costs over the winter as real estate agents update pricing strategies, the company added. The percentage of new listings coming to market in November also was higher than usual for the month. 

In the 50 markets tracked by Zillow, sellers were cutting for-sale prices most frequently in Tampa, Florida, at a 33% share. Indianapolis and Salt Lake City followed at 31.7% and 30.8%, respectively. Nashville, Tennessee, and Phoenix rounded out the top five at 30.5% and 29.8%.

While current trends are bringing some temporary relief for hopeful homeowners, the outlook for the next 12 months point to overall growth in housing costs, albeit slower than what was seen through the first three quarters of 2023. In Fannie Mae's home price expectations survey, 109 housing economists forecasted an average 2.35% rise by the end of 2024. The same experts in the survey, which was conducted in partnership with Pulsenomics, also predicted home prices would finish 2023 5.92% higher from one year earlier.

Expectations of a 2024 increase are by no means unanimous, though, with 16 economists anticipating a decline. 

In subsequent years, economists expect to see annual home price growth ramping up 2.7% and 3.67% in 2025 and 2026. Expected growth between 2023 and 2028 should be a mean 3.8%, declining from 11.9% in the Covid reshuffling period between mid-2020 and mid-2023. 

"The survey panelists expect home price growth to decelerate in the coming years, following 2023 price growth that proved more resilient than many anticipated," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, in a press release. 

"Some, including us, had expected the rapid and significant rise in mortgage rates in 2023 to have dampened purchase demand further than it has, putting more downward pressure on home prices this past year than what appears to have occurred."

In the six-year period between 2022 and 2028, the total cumulative increase of home values is expected to be 25.1%, according to Fannie Mae's findings.

Among a subset of economists responding on recession outlook, 61% said they expected one to occur some time in the next four quarters, but 38% saw its arrival delayed until 2025 at the earliest. A year ago, many researchers across the housing industry warned that a recession would occur by the end of 2023, a prediction that has not come to fruition.

But after a stronger-than-anticipated November jobs report last week, a number of economists have begun suggesting the economy would likely manage to skirt a recession and come in with a "soft landing" instead.

Just over half, or 51% of respondents in a Fannie Mae survey said any eventual recession would be short and mild, compared to 3% who were planning for an event of average duration and severe intensity. The combined effects of a likely recession should lead home prices to decelerate as a result, according to 78% of respondents, while 8% said they would increase.