Lower rates fuel big September refi spike

House Model Near Percentage Sign With Keypad Lock
House Model Near Percentage Sign With Keypad Lock Over Wooden Desk
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The latest refi boomlet sustained its momentum that showed up in late summer, with rate drops driving a noticeable spike in September lock volume, according to Optimal Blue. 

Rate locks jumped 28.2% from August to September, the product-pricing engine platform said in its latest market advantage report, and drove its monthly market index to a score of 127.

The cumulative yearly growth represented a turnaround from the previous month when lock volumes edged back 1.8% and finished with an index reading of 99, even as refinances began their ascent on the backs of favorable mortgage rates.

"The rate rally that began in late summer accelerated in September, and borrowers reacted quickly," said Optimal Blue head of corporate strategy Mike Vough in a press release.

Rate-and-term refinance customers, in particular, showed up in droves, with locks accelerating 153.7% from August. Year over year, transaction locks also surged a significant 55.1%. 

Meanwhile, cash-out originations increased 13.1% month to month and 27.9% from September 2024. 

Combined total volume of both categories led the refinance market to nab a 39% share of volume over the month relative to total activity, the highest in over two years.  

"That momentum also spilled into purchase lending as affordability improved, particularly for first-time homebuyers," Vough added. Purchase locks grew 5.9% from the previous month and 8.9% from a year ago, Optimal Blue's report also said. 

The mean monthly loan amount continued its summer upswing, coming in at $403,746 in September, up 4.5% from August's $386,387 and 5.6% from $382,476 in July. 

Optimal Blue's benchmark interest rates pointed to the influence improved affordability had on September activity. Its 30-year conforming rate ended the month 18 basis points lower at 6.32% compared to August. Rates for government-backed mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration and Department of Veterans Affairs, similarly fell by 18 basis points to end September at 6.08% and 5.82%, respectively. 

Research published throughout 2025 suggests how improved affordability conditions might unleash some pent-up borrower demand as more homeowners land "in the money" once rates fall below certain thresholds. An additional 1.4 million borrowers would benefit from affordability incentives if the 30-year rate dropped below 6.13%, Intercontinental Exchange recently said. 

Latest mortgage trends help drive lower DTI ratios, higher credit scores

A sign of improving housing costs appered in lower debt-to-income ratios, Optimal Blue noted. Both conforming activity and FHA production pointed to decreased DTI month over month with VA levels flat. 

Ratios fell across all products on a year-over-year basis, though, with DTIs for conforming loans finishing the month at 36.5%. For FHA- and VA-sponsored mortgages, debt to income stood at 44.3% and 44.7%.   

Meanwhile, average credit scores also shot up across the board in September's activity, with the mean increasing nine points to 746 for rate-and-term refi transactions from the previous month. For cash-outs, average credit scores rose seven points to 701. Average purchase credit scores grew at a more pace of one point to 738. 

At the same time, the share of first-time buyers grew in FHA and VA lending segments by just over one percentage point thanks to improved affordability, according to the report. The first-time homebuyer share in the conforming market remained the same month over month. 

MBS activity sees active lender interest

Secondary market activity trends showed a continuation of securitization trends seen earlier in the summer. Agency mortgage-backed security executions expanded to a 42% share from August's 40%, hinting at stronger interest among large lenders.

Growth in MBS transactions led loan sales to the agency cash window and aggregators to fall by 100 basis points each to 23% and 32% from August. 

The share of loans sold at the highest pricing tier surged 300 basis points to a 78%,

"This combination of stronger pricing and greater securitization participation underscores lenders' efforts to optimize execution as volume rebounds while maintaining profitability," Vough said. 

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Originations Servicing Housing markets Mortgage rates Refinance LOAN PRODUCTS
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