Relocation activity among homebuyers adjusts to a new normal

The share of people moving to new metropolitan housing markets has come down from its recent peak, but the level of activity looks like it will be permanently elevated from the pre-pandemic norm, according to Redfin.

At 29.5% in October, the share of relocating users of the online real-estate brokerage’s website was down from its high of 31.5% earlier this year, but up from levels closer to 26% prior to March 2020.

“With many employers making remote work permanent, we expect people to continue relocating at a higher rate than they did before the pandemic,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, in a press release. “What will likely change are the places people choose to relocate to.”

Relocation into the Sunbelt isn’t as high as it previously had been, with numbers down in at least four of the top 10 combined statistical areas with at least 500 users, Redfin found in an analysis of sample data from 2 million people.

Sacramento, California, ranked third-highest for relocation activity, saw its net inflow of people slip to 4,904 from 6,369 during the same month last year. Las Vegas, Nevada, ranked as the fourth most popular relocation market, experienced a decline to 4,713 from 5,751 during the same period. Dallas, Texas in sixth place had a net inflow decline to 3,717 from 4,247, and Atlanta, Georgia’s number, at 3,019, was down from 4,629.

This could indicate that consumers have been priced out of these markets, which could shift migration trends to more affordable metro regions like Columbus, Ohio; Harrisburg, Pennsylvania and Indianapolis, Indiana, Fairweather said.

However, migration patterns have strengthened over the past 12 months in the majority of the top 10 relocation markets. First-place ranked Miami, Florida’s net inflow was 6,897, compared to 2,226 a year ago; Phoenix, Arizona’s number was 6.343, up from 5,554; and Tampa, Florida’s was 4,365, vs. 2,896 in October 2020. Net inflows also have been up in San Antonio, Texas, at 3,142 compared to 1,558; Cape Coral, Florida, (3,025 vs. 2,050); and North Port, Florida, (2,876 in October 2021, 1,536 a year earlier).

The net outflows in October were strongest in California, where 31,820 users looked to leave the top-ranked San Francisco, compared to 25,956 during the same month last year. The size of the net outflow also increased in the No. 2 market, Los Angeles, California, which saw 26,035 leaving in October vs. 16,134 a year earlier. However, some of the top markets, like New York City in third place, did experience a reduction in their net outflows. New York’s number fell to 16,921 from 28,048.

Some of the top markets people left in October had a net influx of people a year earlier. The No. 6-ranked Boston, Mass., had 5,637 people looking to leave and a net influx of 331 home shoppers 12 months earlier. The No. 10-ranked Minneapolis, Minnesota, had a net outflow of 842 in October. In October 2020, it had a net inflow of 870 people.