Fixed income

For those unsettled by the relentless rise in government bond yields in the US and across much of the world lately, the message from markets is getting clearer by the day: Get used to it.

In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.73% Wednesday, pushing it toward the 5% peak hit in October 2023, before pulling back down.

The overall price drop was offset by interest payments, allowing a broad gauge of the Treasury market to post a gain of about 0.7% this year through Dec. 30.

Investors have wildly different takes on whether the Fed's three-month-old easing cycle — designed to bring the benchmark rate back down to neutral as inflation cools — is just beginning or getting close to the end.

Economic forecasts include the possibility of higher inflation and slower growth that could stall future cuts to the federal fund rates.

The economist, who runs Roubini Macro Associates, is positioning for a curve steepener, a popular Treasuries trade where the gap between long- and short-dated yields widens.

Tuesday's declines lifted yields by one to four basis points across maturities after Trump said he'd impose additional 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada.

Donald Trump's presidential victory, stubbornly elevated inflation and a steady drumbeat of strong economic data have pushed 10-year Treasury yields up sharply since mid-September — and there's no clear consensus of where they're likely to go.

Treasury yields rose the day after President-elect Donald Trump was picked. The short-term result: It's harder for commercial real estate lenders and borrowers to find common ground.

Treasury yields fell sharply and the dollar weakened as investors pared bets on Republican Donald Trump prevailing in Tuesday's U.S. election.