Fixed income

Traders added to bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amid concern about the impact of US trade tariffs on global economic growth. 

Treasuries gained for a sixth straight session. Morgan Stanley say the 10-year has scope to fall back below 4% if the prevailing view on the Fed shifts.

"Red flags are emerging for the US economy," said Elias Haddad, senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Another month or two of poor US economic data would deliver a blow to the US exceptionalism narrative."

The confabs are a sign that Republicans are getting serious about negotiating the contours of a tax deal, even as the House and Senate are pursuing separate strategies.

Bond traders anticipate that yields will remain elevated — and range bound — until there's a lot more clarity on where the economy is heading. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration's focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve's benchmark short-term interest rate.

After repeatedly blasting Janet Yellen last year over her department's strategy for issuing federal debt, it's now up to Scott Bessent to make the call on sales of Treasuries, with bond dealers conflicted over what he'll do in a pivotal release due Wednesday.

For those unsettled by the relentless rise in government bond yields in the US and across much of the world lately, the message from markets is getting clearer by the day: Get used to it.

In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.73% Wednesday, pushing it toward the 5% peak hit in October 2023, before pulling back down.

The overall price drop was offset by interest payments, allowing a broad gauge of the Treasury market to post a gain of about 0.7% this year through Dec. 30.

Investors have wildly different takes on whether the Fed's three-month-old easing cycle — designed to bring the benchmark rate back down to neutral as inflation cools — is just beginning or getting close to the end.

Economic forecasts include the possibility of higher inflation and slower growth that could stall future cuts to the federal fund rates.

The economist, who runs Roubini Macro Associates, is positioning for a curve steepener, a popular Treasuries trade where the gap between long- and short-dated yields widens.

Tuesday's declines lifted yields by one to four basis points across maturities after Trump said he'd impose additional 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada.

Donald Trump's presidential victory, stubbornly elevated inflation and a steady drumbeat of strong economic data have pushed 10-year Treasury yields up sharply since mid-September — and there's no clear consensus of where they're likely to go.

Treasury yields rose the day after President-elect Donald Trump was picked. The short-term result: It's harder for commercial real estate lenders and borrowers to find common ground.

Treasury yields fell sharply and the dollar weakened as investors pared bets on Republican Donald Trump prevailing in Tuesday's U.S. election.

Wall Street are paring back bets on aggressive policy easing as the U.S. economy remains robust and Fed officials have sounded a cautious tone over the pace of future rate decreases.

Treasuries rallied the most in two weeks as tumbling oil prices eased concerns about an uptick in inflation.

Treasuries are sliding after companies added more jobs than expected last month, sending a mixed signal to traders who are watching the labor market for signs the Federal Reserve needs to aggressively cut interest rates.