Treasurys

The U.S. Supreme Court turned away four appeals from shareholders of the government-sponsored enterprises who said they were entitled to compensation after the Treasury collected more than $100 billion in profits from the government-sponsored enterprises.

The Treasuries market is girding for potential disruptions from the next and trickiest stage of policymakers’ tightening campaign: the shrinking of an $8.5 trillion bond portfolio.

Yields have jumped so much this year, nearly doubling those on 10-year Treasuries, that it recalls past buying opportunities that paid off when the tide turned.

The yield on 10-year US notes has traded in a range of at least 10 basis points in 50 of 95 trading days so far in 2022. That puts it on track for an annual rate of more than 130 episodes, which would be the highest since 2009.

U.S. Treasuries tumbled Monday, driving the yield on five-year notes to the highest level since September 2008 amid speculation persistent inflation will prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten policy more aggressively.

The selloff worsened after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed officials considering earlier and faster interest-rate increases than expected.

Treasury yields rose a second day amid increasing conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at least three times beginning in May.

Relying on retained earnings alone, it would be until at least 2036, if not longer, before government control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae might end.

Bond bears appear to be having more than just a moment here at the start of 2021, with Treasury yields finally busting out of long-held ranges to levels last seen in the early days of the pandemic.

Just because the Fed is staying put doesn’t mean that mortgage rates, and prices of MBS, are staying put as well, writes Vice Capital Markets Principal Chris Bennett.