Treasurys

The resilience of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism the economy has withstood the worst of Fed tightening.

The U.S. 30-year yield reached the highest level in a month on Monday amid predictions that a Trump presidency would lead to higher inflation.

Potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates is the growing view that the economy's so-called neutral rate — a theoretical level of borrowing costs that neither stimulates nor slows growth — is much higher than policymakers are currently projecting. 

Wall Street saw another busy session of bond sales as issuers looked to borrow before key economic data later this week.

In the derivatives markets, they've started pricing in that the Fed will carry out just four — or five at the most — quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, only slightly more than the three penciled in by policymakers.

Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.

The Federal Reserve will need to start hitting the brakes on the unwind of its balance sheet as the outlook for the central bank's reserves grows increasingly murky, according to Wrightson ICAP.  

The rally in Treasuries ahead of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut may only just be getting started, according to Bank of America Corp. research.

Treasuries resumed their rally on Tuesday as further labor-market slowdown reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates next year to prevent a recession.

Whether the rally extends into December and then 2024 depends on if the principal forces behind it — signs that the economy and inflation are slowing and that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates — keep building.

By the end of 2024 traders now see the U.S. central bank slashing rates by a full percentage point, despite officials repeatedly warning markets that they're in no rush to cut rates.

The recent jump is the biggest increase since the run up in the early 1980s, when Paul Volcker's efforts to slay inflation pushed the 10-year yield to nearly 16%.

US 30-year yields dropped seven basis points to 4.79%, unwinding part of Thursday's surge that was driven by a somewhat disappointing inflation reading and a weak bond auction.

The current Treasury yield curve is leading homeowners to pay mortgage rates at least 120 basis points more than they should, equal to an extra $245 a month on a $300,000 loan, their letter said.

Top Fed officials are coalescing around the idea that tighter financial conditions after a recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields may substitute for additional increases in their benchmark interest rate.

"There is nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon," the Federal Reserve governor said in an interview on CNBC Tuesday.

New mortgage bonds now offer yields that are about 1.66 percentage point higher than U.S. Treasuries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the most relative to corporate bonds in 17 years. 

Stock futures fluctuated on Wednesday as the latest data showed the U.S. economy expanded at a slower rate than previously thought in the second quarter, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle.

The yield on 30-year securities has climbed almost 25 basis points over the past three sessions, returning it to levels last seen in mid-November when inflation was still above 7%, more than double the current rate. Ten-year borrowing costs rose to around 4.15%. 

In their latest assessment of the bond market outlook, Morgan Stanley strategists are challenging the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's view that losses are likely to deepen.