Private MI market share gaps widen in Q2

Private mortgage insurers wrote just 2% more new business on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter, but market share shifts widened the spread between the six underwriters.

The industry-wide market share gap was 1.7 percentage points for both the second quarter 2024 and first quarter of 2025, according to data from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

But for the period just ended, the spread was 5.1 percentage points.

The six companies had a three-way split in year-over-year NIW volume: MGIC and Radian were higher; National MI and Essent were basically flat; and Enact and Arch did less business.

Total new insurance written was $81.8 billion, up from $57.9 billion in the first quarter (a gain of 40% from what is typically the weakest period of the year) and $79.8 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

The poor spring homebuying season likely played a part in the flat year-over-year numbers. The title insurers also noted the market weakness affecting them during the period.

However, unlike title, which is needed on virtually every transaction, MI is used when borrowers put down less than 20% on a conforming mortgage. Besides the government guaranteed programs that compete with PMI, many nonconforming products do not require MI in a low down payment situation.

Going forward, the industry should benefit from the tax deduction for premiums being restored and made permanent in President Trump's tax bill.

After the quarter ended, KBW reduced its stock ratings on three of the companies, but remained bullish on the sector.

Last year, over 800,000 home purchasers used this product, according to recently released figures from the U.S. Mortgage Insurers.

The following is the results from the six active underwriters; private MI is the primary business for all but Arch.

MGIC's market share increases by 19%

MGIC remained No. 1 among private mortgage insurers by market share, but consolidated its position at the top during the quarter.

Its underwriting unit, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp., wrote $16.4 billion of NIW, up from $10.2 billion in the first quarter and $13.5 billion for the second quarter of 2024, gains of 61% and 21% respectively, according to the KBW calculations.

The company ended the quarter with a 20.1% share of business, which was a 14.1% market share gain from the first quarter's 17.6%, and a 19% increase over the year ago's 16.9%.

But even with the gain in market share, insurance-in-force increased by just over $3 billion to $297 billion from $293.8 billion as of March 31. Persistency, a measurement of how many policies remain on the books from 12 months' prior, was flat from the first quarter at 84.7%.

The cloud on MGIC's horizon is a future increase in delinquencies in its book of business. Its delinquent inventory ended the quarter at 24,444 loans, down from 25,436 three months earlier.

It is a sign normal seasonal credit trends have returned following the pandemic, said Nathan Colson, executive vice president, chief financial officer and chief risk officer, during the earnings call. But the business generated during the pandemic is now entering its peak default years.

"Although the delinquency rate at the end of the second quarter was 12 basis points higher than a year ago, the number of new notices and the delinquency rate remained low by historical standards," Colson said.

"Looking ahead, we continue to expect that the combination of seasonality and the aging of our large 2021 and 2022 book year vintages into what are historically higher loss emergence years will result in an increase in new delinquency notices and the delinquency rate in the second half of the year," he added.

Radian remains profitable but "all other" business drags

While Radian Group's mortgage insurance business drove profitability during the quarter, its "all other" units, including those formerly branded as Homegenius, remained a problem area.

The all other category — real estate services, title and real estate technology — had a second quarter adjusted pretax operating loss of $16.4 million, compared with a $3.5 million loss in the first quarter and a $6.1 million loss one year ago.

"The increase is primarily driven by lower revenue this quarter within our mortgage conduit business as a result of mark-to-market changes on residential mortgage loans held for sale," Sumita Pandit, president and CFO, said during the call.

Radian's second quarter net income was down with the comparable periods. It made $142 million for the period ended June 30, compared with $145 million three months prior and $152 million one year earlier.

But, the No. 2 company for the quarter reported an increase in NIW over the same time frames, to $14.3 billion from $9.5 billion and $13.9 billion, respectively.

Its market share of 17.6% was the only other MI's to increase besides MGIC, up 7.2% versus the first quarter and 0.9% from the second quarter of 2024.

"Our primary mortgage insurance in force, which is the main driver of future earnings for our company, grew to another all-time high of $277 billion," CEO Rick Thornberry said. "And consistent with trends over the last several quarters, our mortgage insurance portfolio delivered strong credit performance with cures exceeding new defaults during the quarter."

It had 22,238 delinquent loans in the inventory at the end of quarter, down from 22,758 as of March 30 but up from 20,276 on June 30, 2024.

Title revenue was $4.0 million for the quarter, up from $3.3 million in the first quarter and $3.5 million one year ago.

"Our title estimates decreased modestly on the lower than forecast title revenues," KBW's Bose George commented. "Management has previously noted that because of the correlation between title premiums and mortgage volumes, they are somewhat levered to lower rates and view the [operating expense] drag in the near term as an option cost to increase premiums when rates ultimately decline."

Right call but different route on 2025 business: Enact CEO

In previous calls, Rohit Gupta, president and CEO of Enact, guided that 2025's mortgage insurance market would be "generally similar" to that of the prior year.

"Our view even right now is that statement is true, although we might have gotten there in a slightly different way than we expected," Gupta said on Enact's earnings call. "I think mortgage rates continuing to remain high have probably suppressed the purchase origination market compared to our original estimates."

But consumers are still using private MI in a meaningful way, so he is holding to that forecast, adding the two things Enact is keeping an eye on is mortgage rate movements and the impact of tariffs.

Enact wrote the third most NIW in the quarter at $13.3 billion, up from $9.8 billion in the fourth quarter, but below the $13.6 billion it did in the second quarter last year.

"Pricing was again constructive in the quarter, and we maintained our commitment to prudent underwriting standards," Gupta said. "Our pricing engine, Rate 360, allows us to deliver competitive pricing on a risk-adjusted basis, and we continue to prudently underwrite and select risk."

The company reported net income of $168 million, slightly ahead of the first quarter's $166 million but down from $1.84 million recorded one year ago.

Essent feels good about default trends

Like several other companies, normal seasonal default patterns have returned to Essent Group, Mark Casale, chairman, CEO and president, said on the earnings call.

"It ebbs and flows a little bit, but I think big picture, given the embedded equity in the portfolio, having some of those even if they become defaults transitioning, the claim depending on the vintage, it's probably on a lower probability side," Casale said. "So again, I think from a credit standpoint, picture, we feel pretty good from that first loss perspective."

Essent's default rate is 212 basis points, versus 219 basis points on March 31 but well up from a year ago, when it was 171 basis points.

By loan count, the inventory has 17,255 defaulted mortgages, down from 17,759 at the end of the first quarter and 13,954 for the second quarter of 2024.

Essent did $12.54 billion of NIW, just slightly more than a year ago, when it did $12.5 billion. In the first quarter, Essent wrote $9.45 billion.

Its market share was down by 10.5% versus the first quarter, but just 1.7% lower compared with the second quarter of 2024, to 15.4%.

The title underwriting and agency business Essent acquired from Incenter/Finance of America, did not have any influence on the quarter's results.

"Essent Title remains focused on expanding our client base footprint and production capabilities in key markets," Casale said. "We continue to maintain a long-term horizon for this business and given persistent headwinds of higher rates, we do not expect title to have any material impact on our earnings over the near term."
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