Annual mortgage origination volume to hit record-breaking $4 trillion

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In this precedent-busting year, mortgage volumes are predicted to hit new quarterly and annual highs, according to Black Knight.

The latest 45-day rate lock data from the Mortgage Monitor Report put third-quarter originations — both purchase and refinance — on track to break the previous record and stay high through the end of the year and possibly longer. The low interest rate environment is expected to keep consumer demand charged.

"Estimated origination volumes based on underlying locks suggest both Q3 refinance and total originations could be up 25% or more from Q2 while purchase lending could be up by 35% or more," Ben Graboske, president of data and analytics for Black Knight, said in a press release. "This would push 2020 purchase lending to the highest level since 2005 and both refinance lending and total origination volumes to their highest levels ever. Indeed, total lending in 2020 is well on its way to easily eclipse the $4 trillion mark for the first time in history."

The delinquency rate went to about 6.7% in September, falling 3.1% from August and shooting up 89% year-over-year. Meanwhile, foreclosures made up 0.34% of mortgages, down 2.86% monthly and 29.14% annually. As of the end of September, 23% of mortgages in active forbearance are current on their payments. About 8% are either 30, 60 or 90 days late, and a 52% share is 120 days past due.

Among borrowers who exited forbearance, approximately 8% paid off their loans and 36% are reperforming. Government-sponsored enterprise loans — which boast lower rates of forborne loans — posted a 10% paid-off share and 42% reperforming. Mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration or guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs haven’t met those levels yet. Pay offs account for 6% and reperforming account for 27% of FHA exits from coronavirus-related forbearance. VA loans posted 11% and 21% shares.

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Originations Purchase Refinance Loss mitigation Delinquencies Distressed Black Knight GSEs FHA
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