Barclays Forecasts 9.7% Home Price Rise in 2013

Barclays is forecasting a year-to-year 9.7% rise in U.S. home prices by the end of 2013 and a 7.2% increase in 2014, based on first-quarter data.

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“This was an unusually strong quarter and exceeded our earlier expectations,” Barclays’ researchers wrote in their quarterly housing update report.

Year-over-year, overall housing prices are up 11% through the first quarter and 10.2% excluding distressed sales, according to the report.

The report finds that distressed inventory declines continue with “bust states such as Nevada and California leading the way.

“However, as distressed share stabilizes, rates of appreciation should cool, as is the case in Arizona,” the report notes.

But overall, the researchers said, “We expect the recovery to broaden in 2013, with the median state growing at a 7% rate versus a 4% rate in 2012.”


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