Inflation

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed senators' concerns about higher costs for Americans, noting average yearly inflation is lower than during the pandemic, while also confirming acting Attorney General Todd Blanche's Tuesday claim that the administration will not move forward with a $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund."

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Friday that she believes price growth is still heading toward the central bank's 2% target when factoring out one-time shocks such as tariffs and elevated oil prices.

The Federal Reserve Board governor is the latest Fed official to embrace the prospect of tighter monetary policy in response to rapidly rising prices that have taken hold in recent years.

The Consumer Price Index for April showed consumer prices rising across all categories, including food and shelter costs, and up 3.8% year-over-year. Grocery prices rose 0.7% from the month prior.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said Tuesday that the U.S. energy sector is more insulated from shocks than Europe's, particularly in natural gas prices. However, he warned that the war is pushing up gasoline prices, which could spill over into other parts of the economy.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran Thursday said that the Iran war and tariffs will not have long-term impacts on inflation, but did say he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year.

The setback pared a weekly gain for US government bonds sparked by an April 8 ceasefire agreement, which caused oil prices to tumble from near multiyear highs.

A 21.2% spike in the price of gasoline was the biggest contributor to a 0.9% increase in the Consumer Price Index in March, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency said other price increases were largely contained.

Two former members of the Federal Open Market Committee said in interviews that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady amid uncertainty over the ongoing war with Iran and the resulting upward pressure on inflation.

In three separate appearances Thursday, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, Gov. Michael Barr and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said they are worried that U.S. involvement in the war with Iran could drive up inflation, leading them to conclude that interest rates should remain steady in the near term.

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's commentary about the economic impacts of the Iran war and its longer-term impact on inflation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a public appearance in Dallas Friday that the administration will seek alternative means of enacting the White House's tariff agenda after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs as outside the bounds of the law.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January Consumer Price Index Friday, showing that inflation rose 0.2%, while the annual rate eased to 2.4% after holding at 2.7% for several months. The data reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future. 

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook said in a speech Wednesday night that the central bank's credibility depends on its ability to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Federal Reserve Board should reject the renomination of any regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents who have not lived in their districts for three years, signaling a potential confrontation when reappointments come before the board in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Consumer Price Index reading Friday morning, showing inflation rose by 0.3% in September, slightly below August's pace. The report also found core inflation steady at 3.0%, even as shelter costs eased and gasoline prices spiked.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Friday that the economic outlook is uncertain and that he was adopting a cautious approach to gauging whether slowing growth and a softening labor market outweigh inflation pressures from tariffs.

Investors are anticipating the annual preliminary benchmark revision of US payrolls data. Further signs of softening could further raise expectations for Fed easing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index rose to 0.3% in June to an annualized rate of 2.7%, making the case to cut interest rates more difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify at its next meeting later this month.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation moved further from its 2% target, underscoring the central bank's reluctance to cut rates.