Inflation

The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, in line with July's reading. For a monetary policy committee that has been split on inflation, the inconclusive report will compel the Fed to make a call on whether to raise interest rates or stay put.

The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, bouncing back from a surprise decline in July. The Fed's next interest rate decision will still hinge on next week's inflation reading.

The Federal Reserve governor said an upcoming change to the personal consumption expenditures index could show ongoing improvement in prices, building the case for leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Wednesday that inflation expectations remain well anchored, suggesting a "wait-and-see" approach for monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is slated to deliver the keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Friday morning, and markets will be listening for assurances on inflation, the balance sheet and Treasury market turmoil. 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, indicating that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target.

The forces he sees at work include inflationary pressures from the AI buildout, exacerbated by tariffs, labor constraints and oil-price spikes.

The latest consumer conditions study from the American Financial Services Association paints a less-than-rosy picture of how lenders expect the second half of the year to play out.

Christopher Phelan, President Donald Trump's nominee to chair the Council of Economic Advisers, declined to directly answer questions about recent inflation data and the effects of tariffs on consumers during a Senate confirmation hearing Thursday.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal consumption expenditures inflation report for May showed that inflation had risen 4.1%, meeting elevated expectations and casting further doubt on the prospects of near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Newly minted Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will host his inaugural press conference on Wednesday. Bankers will be paying close attention to what he says — and how he says it.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed senators' concerns about higher costs for Americans, noting average yearly inflation is lower than during the pandemic, while also confirming acting Attorney General Todd Blanche's Tuesday claim that the administration will not move forward with a $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund."

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Friday that she believes price growth is still heading toward the central bank's 2% target when factoring out one-time shocks such as tariffs and elevated oil prices.

The Federal Reserve Board governor is the latest Fed official to embrace the prospect of tighter monetary policy in response to rapidly rising prices that have taken hold in recent years.

The Consumer Price Index for April showed consumer prices rising across all categories, including food and shelter costs, and up 3.8% year-over-year. Grocery prices rose 0.7% from the month prior.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said Tuesday that the U.S. energy sector is more insulated from shocks than Europe's, particularly in natural gas prices. However, he warned that the war is pushing up gasoline prices, which could spill over into other parts of the economy.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran Thursday said that the Iran war and tariffs will not have long-term impacts on inflation, but did say he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year.

The setback pared a weekly gain for US government bonds sparked by an April 8 ceasefire agreement, which caused oil prices to tumble from near multiyear highs.

A 21.2% spike in the price of gasoline was the biggest contributor to a 0.9% increase in the Consumer Price Index in March, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency said other price increases were largely contained.

Two former members of the Federal Open Market Committee said in interviews that they expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady amid uncertainty over the ongoing war with Iran and the resulting upward pressure on inflation.