Latest Prepays Generally Stable, Except HARP Cohorts, Low Coupons

Prepayment speeds on 30-year conventional fixed-rate securitizations generally remained stable in the latest month, although some Home Affordable Refinance Program cohorts “were a tad faster” and lower coupons slowed a bit, according to Credit Suisse.

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The company’s researchers found a pickup in two sellers’ pools mainly drove the slight increase in HARP cohorts in March compared to the previous month, and said that continued third-party originator burnout appears to be behind the low-coupon slowdown.

The latter included an 11%-14% decrease in the speeds of Fannie 2010 and 2012 vintage Fannie Mae 3.5s as well as a larger-than-expected deceleration in 2011 vintage 3.5s. The 2011 vintage slowdown appears to stem from continued third-party originator burnout, according to Credit Suisse.

Ginnie Mae I speeds in the 30-year sector also were stable. Ginnie Mae II speeds slowed by 4%.


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