Mortgage rates down as tariff tantrum ends

Mortgage rates declined again this week, tracking movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, as the broad swings over macroeconomic news (particularly the tariff tantrum) have calmed, at least for the moment.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.76% May 1, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. It is down from last week's 6.81%, while a year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.22%.

The 15-year FRM had a smaller drop, down 2 basis points to 5.92%, from last week when it was 5.94%. For the same week in 2024, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.47%.

Is the market finally stabilizing?

"Although the changes are modest, they indicate a potential stabilization in the mortgage market following recent volatility," said Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage, in a statement.

After peaking at 4.41% on April 21, the 10-year Treasury yield has retreated significantly, closing at 4.17% on April 29 before slightly moving back up to 4.2 as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning.

"Mortgage rates again declined this week," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "In recent weeks, rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have fallen even lower than the first quarter average of 6.83%."

The movements were in line with other rate trackers.

What other trackers are reporting

At that time Zillow's rate tracker for the 30-year FRM was at 6.88%, down 10 basis points from the previous week's average of 6.98%.

Lender Price product and pricing engine data on the National Mortgage News website had the 30-year FRM at 6.76%, 15 basis points lower than 6.91% one week ago.

"The recent fluctuations in mortgage rates have been influenced by various factors, including investor reactions to proposed tariffs and their potential impact on inflation," Dedhia said.

"While rates have edged down this week, the broader economic landscape remains uncertain, and future rate movements will likely depend on developments in trade policy and inflation trends."

A respite for borrowers, for now

Mortgage borrowers are getting a small respite, Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, said in Wednesday evening comment.

"Markets digested a GDP report that showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter," Ng said. "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey descended further for April, to the lowest level since the pandemic."

Add into this an ADP employment report that showed that private employers added only 62,000 jobs in April, half of what was expected by economists, as they await the Bureau of Labor Statistics data due out Friday.

Lower rates don't help application activity

On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported application volume decreased 4.2% from the prior week seasonally adjusted as measured by its Market Composite Index. Both refinancings and purchases were down 4%.

"Mortgage rates were little changed last week with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.89," said Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, in a press release. "Mortgage application activity, particularly for home purchases, continues to be subdued by broader economic uncertainty and signs of labor market weakness, dropping to the slowest pace since February."

Kan was referring to the conforming rate, which was down 1 basis point from the previous week.

The jumbo 30-year FRM fell two basis points for the period ended April 25, to 6.88%, but for Federal Housing Administration-insured mortgages, it rose to 6.61% from 6.56%.

Rates on the 15-year FRM fell to 6.17% from 6.2% while for the 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage, it slipped to 5.89% from 6.01%.

These falling rates could add "some oomph" to home sales, said Holden Lewis, home and mortgage expert at NerdWallet, in a comment on the MBA Application data.

"It's good timing, as homebuyers typically are busiest from mid-April to mid-May," Lewis said. "Buyers were thwarted by an increase in mortgage rates in the first half of April, and this week's decline might have provided enough relief to boost more sales."

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