New-home sales pace hits 2025 high despite dip in apps

Homebuilders
Contractors work on a house under construction at the Lennar Corp. Tree Tops community development in Lancaster, South Carolina, U.S., on Monday, Jan. 8, 2018. Photographer: Travis Dove/Bloomberg
Travis Dove/Bloomberg

New-home mortgage applications fell again in October, but the seasonally adjusted annual sales pace climbed to its highest level this year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

New-home purchases fell 2.6% year over year and 1% month over month in October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Builder Application Survey. The MBA also estimated that new single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 771,000 units last month, a 13.4% increase from September.

The significant jump in the annual sales estimate comes after particularly poor performance in September, which saw a 6.8% decrease from August to 680,000 units. The MBA's estimate has been a leading indicator of the U.S. Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report, which has not been published since the August data release due to the government shutdown.

On an unadjusted monthly basis, the MBA estimated there were 55,000 new-home sales last month, a 1.9% rise from 54,000 in September. 

"Lower mortgage rates, ongoing usage of builder concessions, and growing levels of for-sale inventory drove an increase in new home sales for October," said Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, in a press release Monday. "The increased use of [adjustable-rate mortgage] loans, for which rates were averaging almost 80 basis points lower than fixed-rate loans, also contributed to the jump in sales and a slightly higher average loan size, the third monthly increase."

ARM loans accounted for 25% of applications in October, up from 16% a year ago.

By product type, conventional loans, Department of Veterans Affairs-guaranteed loans and U.S. Department of Agriculture-backed loans all lost a sliver of their share of applications last month, dropping to 51.9%, 12.3% and 0.7%, respectively.

The Federal Housing Administration insured 35.1% of loan applications for new homes, an increase from 33.8% in September.

The average loan size for new homes also increased to $381,404 in October from $379,107 in September.

While total new-home applications declined monthly and annually for the first time in seven months, they remained at a healthy pace compared to the last three years, Kan said.

What features drive home value?

Unit size and extra amenities can be the difference in whether a new home sells at its asking price in a tighter market.

Home size is one the strongest value drivers in the housing market, as homes between 1,000 and 2,000 square feet add 17% more value than homes under 1,000 square feet, according to the National Association of Home Builders' latest American Housing Survey. Homes with 3,000 square feet or more adds 55% to the market value.

Extra bathrooms and bedrooms, fireplaces and garages each noticeably improve the value of a home as well, but bathrooms have the largest impact as each additional full bathroom increases home value by 32%, the study showed. An additional bedroom adds 5% to the home's value, while a fireplace and garage raise the value by 11% and 10%, respectively.

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