What may happen to house prices over the next year

Housing values have been remarkably consistent for over a decade but a gradual shift may be coming, starting next fall.

This August marked 139 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, with the latest rise being 3.7% compared with the same month in 2022, and home prices are on track to increase by an additional 3.4% annually through August 2024.

But economists at CoreLogic are now putting up a yellow flag about future growth.

"Home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends," said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic's chief economist in a press release. "Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off."

Prices grew 0.3% on a month-to-month basis in August. Looking forward to September, CoreLogic is expecting a 0.2% gain.

While housing values have been bearing up nationally, they did dip into negative territory in eight states during August: Idaho (-4%), Montana (-2.7%), Nevada (-2.3%), Utah (-2%), Washington (-1%), Arizona (-0.9%), Texas (-0.4%) and New York (-0.2%).

A lack of inventory has kept national prices elevated despite the fact that mortgage rates have strained affordability by rising above 7% for the first time in many years.

Data from HouseCanary found net new listing volume has declined by 20% in September on a year-over-year basis after falling 27.5% during August. Properties going into contract declined by 12.4%.

The median price for all single family listings increased 1.8% year-over-year for the week of Sept. 22 to $439,071; for closed properties, it rose 3.2% to $407,851.

But when compared with August, the median price of single-family listings was down 0.2% and for closed listings was down 1.3%.

The subdued market, characterized by a 5% reduction in median days a property remains for sale, "signals a current seller's market, prompting potential buyers to continue to turn towards the rental market," said HouseCanary CEO Jeremy Sicklick said in a press release. 

"Furthermore, anticipated student loan payments beginning in October are expected to put additional downward pressure on demand from would-be buyers facing high purchase prices, high interest rates and less discretionary income," he added.