Sen. Richard Shelby is not up for reelection this year, but his days as the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee may be numbered.
While much about the next Congress is still undecided ahead of the November elections, Shelby will run up against GOP conference rules unless Republicans seize control of the chamber. Those rules prohibit a member from serving as a committee's ranking member or chairman for more than six years.
If Republicans win enough seats to secure the chamber—a possible but unlikely scenario—Shelby still has two more years to serve as chairman. But he is ending his sixth year as the panel's minority leader now, meaning he would likely have to give up his ranking member spot.
That would open the door for Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho, who is next in line according to seniority. While Crapo has generally been supportive of Shelby's leadership, the change could still be significant for the committee and its priorities.
"There's a style difference—Crapo's a little bit more low-key," said Brian Gardner, a research analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. "Shelby, as a lot of Southerners do, has a populist streak. I don't think of Crapo quite in the same terms of populism."
Such differences could also play into how Crapo works with current Chairman Tim Johnson, D-S.C.
"I would expect that Johnson and Crapo would get along. They both represent small-bank states," said Gardner. "Both are probably close with community banks, so it's probably a positive for the community banks.
"Both he and Johnson represent states where agriculture and ranching are significant parts of the economy. So I think there's probably a common bond there," he added.
The two have also worked together on rural investment and other bills, observers point out.
"I think that Crapo would push Johnson less. Maybe it's a matter of degree, but you're not going to see as much of a confrontation," said Mark Calabria, director of financial regulation studies at the Cato Institute, and a former top Shelby aide.
But at the same time, Crapo will need to reach out to the more conservative GOP committee members, including Sens. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and Patrick Toomey, R-Penn. "You're going to have to build a bridge to many of the more conservative members of the committee," said Calabria. "I think that's going to be the wildcard."
That's a skill his predecessor was able to hone and use to his advantage.
"Shelby has a long history on that committee as ranking member or chairman, and he was able to keep Republicans united for a long time," said Gardner. "I suspect that Crapo would be able to do that, but it's a talent that's developed over time."
