Fixed income

AD Mortgage's head of correspondent business development writes that an Iran peace deal sparked bond rallies ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

Balance sheet reduction is a top priority of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Achieving that goal means avoiding the kinds of disruptions that roiled the Treasury bond market in 2019, the last time the central bank embarked on quantitative tightening.

The ADP Research gauge of private-sector job growth in May showed an increase of 122,000, which slightly exceeded economists' median estimate.

Crude oil futures dropped sharply Sunday, triggering bullish Treasury gaps. The head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage writes about what it means for yields.

The shift gathered pace at the most recent policy meeting in April, when three voters on the Federal Open Market Committee voted against the decision to hold rates steady.

Core CPI came in above forecasts and Treasury yields surged, while copper's record-high prices add to inflation concerns, the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage writes.

The Treasury anticipates keeping nominal note and bond sale sizes unchanged "for at least the next several quarters," the department said in a quarterly statement on debt policy Wednesday.

Treasurys posted solid gains Friday as oil futures dropped $15 a barrel, while the S&P 500 logged its 10th straight day of higher highs, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Oil prices and Treasury yields continued their close correlation Friday, with crude falling $12 and the 5-year yield hitting recovery lows after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open during the ceasefire.

Being a diversified global bank, Goldman Sachs was "broadly seen favorably as a relatively safe haven type of credit," said Tony Trzcinka, an investment grade portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management.

The setback pared a weekly gain for US government bonds sparked by an April 8 ceasefire agreement, which caused oil prices to tumble from near multiyear highs.

A Iran ceasefire sparked a $20 oil drop and Treasury rally, narrowing the rate-cut window from 18 to 15 months, but key technical resistance levels and a potentially ugly Friday CPI report could still reshape the outlook, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Yields rebounded after the 30-year held near 5%, but the yield curve's flattening trend likely isn't over, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Some of Wall Street's biggest bond-fund managers say financial markets are underestimating the risk that the US war in Iran will cause a sharp slowdown in an already sputtering economy. 

Despite bullish jobs data, yields surged post-FOMC, with three possible wave theory outcomes ahead, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Treasury yields look oversold after a rough week, but technical patterns still point to a broader uptrend that could push the 5- and 10-year closer to 5%, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Treasury yields swung wildly after a soft jobs report as oil's surge added a new complication for the Fed, raising concerns about the rate path ahead, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

War headlines failed to lift Treasuries; rates sold off, resistance held, and hedging beat rate bets, according to the Head of Correspondent Business Development at AD Mortgage.

Bond yields tested key resistance as markets largely shrugged at the data, according to the Head of Correspondent Business Development at AD Mortgage.

Treasuries rallied and broke key levels, but stubborn 5-year resistance still caps momentum and rate-cut expectations remain unchanged, the CEO of IF Securities writes.