Interest rates

The Federal Reserve will roll its maturing holdings of mortgage-backed securities into Treasuries starting after September, capping it at $20 billion per month.

While the London interbank offered rate won't go dark until 2021, the commercial real estate finance industry should start preparing for the transition now, says the Mortgage Bankers Association.

An effort to increase awareness of the transition to a new benchmark rate, and nudge banks to start preparing, is expected to intensify in 2019.

The industry could see a boost in mortgage lending from regulatory changes, but other factors may slow growth.

Ordinarily, declining property sales will cool the costs for housing. But existing-home sales have been underperforming their potential for 40 straight months and property values are still on the rise, according to First American Financial Corp.

Sentiment among homebuilders fell in December to the lowest level since 2015, missing all forecasts and signaling that the industry's struggles are intensifying amid elevated prices and higher borrowing costs.

If the predictions prove correct, the benchmark rate would reach 3.50% by the end of next year.

Confidence among homebuilders plummeted by the most since 2014 as the highest borrowing costs in eight years restrain demand, adding to signs of a cooling housing market that will weigh on the Federal Reserve's debate over how far to raise interest rates.

The end of one-party rule in Washington could move the needle on efforts to devise a new housing finance framework.

Rising mortgage interest rates not only will continue to constrain banks' once-robust revenue from this business, they will also affect existing borrower credit quality, a report from Moody's said.