Interest rates

The development of a replacement index for the London interbank offered rate brought back memories for one secondary market participant of the technology disaster worries many had at the turn of the century.

Mortgage applications decreased 4.3% from one week earlier although concerns over the global economy resulted in falling interest rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Historically, rising interest rates have enabled banks to earn more, but this time around in the banking industry, like much else, things are a little different.

JPMorgan Chase's banner quarter didn't stop executives from warning that the pause in rate hikes could crimp profits, or from hinting that the bank might downsize its mammoth mortgage operation.

The Federal Reserve will roll its maturing holdings of mortgage-backed securities into Treasuries starting after September, capping it at $20 billion per month.

While the London interbank offered rate won't go dark until 2021, the commercial real estate finance industry should start preparing for the transition now, says the Mortgage Bankers Association.

An effort to increase awareness of the transition to a new benchmark rate, and nudge banks to start preparing, is expected to intensify in 2019.

The industry could see a boost in mortgage lending from regulatory changes, but other factors may slow growth.

Ordinarily, declining property sales will cool the costs for housing. But existing-home sales have been underperforming their potential for 40 straight months and property values are still on the rise, according to First American Financial Corp.

Sentiment among homebuilders fell in December to the lowest level since 2015, missing all forecasts and signaling that the industry's struggles are intensifying amid elevated prices and higher borrowing costs.