Tariffs

A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China boosted the near-term economic outlook for banks, but tensions and uncertainty around trade barriers remain high.

Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler said in a speech in Dublin that trade barriers could soon affect prices and slow down growth while increasing uncertainty in 2025.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said global supply chain disruptions and inflation caused by tariffs could weigh heaviest on small businesses, especially those with little access to credit.

Their worries center on fears the new duties could impact their personal finances, according to a new survey from home-equity investment platform Point.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects negotiations with trading partners over tariffs to conclude by the end of the year but acknowledged that talks with China had not yet begun.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation reading fell in March, but the positive reading came before new trade policies hit the economy.

President Trump suggested his sweeping tariffs would help him reduce income taxes for people making less than $200,000 a year.

The president said he had "no intention" of firing the Federal Reserve chair and promised that tariffs against Chinese imports would be lowered "substantially."

The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth projections for 2025, citing policy uncertainty. It also urged central banks to stand ready to use macroprudential tools to facilitate lending in a potential recession.

Even with various tariff pauses and exemptions, suppliers are raising prices due to ongoing policy uncertainty, and consumers also are altering their behavior.