The biggest net influx of population happened in big cities further inland, places which offered relatively affordable homes and still healthy job markets, according to Redfin's migration report. On the flip side, expensive coastal metros such as San Francisco and New York experienced the greatest net outflow of residents.
"The current inventory crunch really started building in the fourth quarter, pushing home prices in the expensive coastal cities back up after a slight reprieve earlier in the year," Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist, said in a press release. "As price increases begin to gain steam again in these areas, we're predicting that migration to more affordable areas will increase, which in turn will begin to drive prices up there, as well."
From the heartland to the desert, here's a look at 10 housing markets where buyers are looking to move — and the high-cost markets they're leaving.
The data is based on a Redfin analysis of more than 1 million home listing searches across 87 metros during the fourth quarter of 2019. Net inflow and outflow were calculated by taking the number of users looking to leave a metro area and subtracting the number of users looking to move to the city or to another metro area.
No. 10 Nashville, Tenn.
Net inflow 4Q19: 2,864 Share of searches from nonresidents: 34.9% Top origin metro area: New York
unknown/Dave Newman - stock.adobe.com
No. 9 Boston, Mass.
Net inflow 4Q19: 2,874 Share of searches from nonresidents: 13.9% Top origin metro area: New York
boston, aerial, view, massachusetts, usa, england, city, america, street, architecture, new, building, skyline, urban, north, cityscape, metropolis, modern, river, bay, downtown, landmark, old, summer, skyscraper, red, church, historic, business, charles, tourism, history, famous, panorama, capital, sightseeing, cambridge, real, estate
Roman Slavik/romanslavik.com - stock.adobe.com
No. 8 Tampa, Fla.
Net inflow 4Q19: 2,904 Share of searches from nonresidents: 53.3% Top origin metro area: Orlando, Fla.
Tampa city skyline, panoramic view on modern skyscrapers in business downtown, Florida, USA
http://www.pixachi.com/PixAchi - stock.adobe.com
No. 7 Portland, Ore.
Net inflow 4Q19: 3,402 Share of searches from nonresidents: 18.6% Top origin metro area: San Francisco
Iconic Portland, Oregon Old Town sign with an outline of Oregon and a stag
Jess Kraft/jkraft5 - Fotolia
No. 6 Dallas, Texas
Net inflow 4Q19: 3,420 Share of searches from nonresidents: 25.6% Top origin metro area: Los Angeles
CINDY HIGBY/Cindy - stock.adobe.com
No. 5 Austin, Texas
Net inflow 4Q19: 4,038 Share of searches from nonresidents: 32.3% Top origin metro area: San Francisco
Aaron - stock.adobe.com
No. 4 Atlanta, Ga.
Net inflow 4Q19: 5,377 Share of searches from nonresidents: 27.2% Top origin metro area: New York
Aerial image of sports arenas at Downtown Atlanta GA
Felix Mizioznikov - stock.adobe.com
No. 3 Las Vegas, Nev.
Net inflow 4Q19: 5,660 Share of searches from nonresidents: 46.8% Top origin metro area: Los Angeles
nuinthesky - stock.adobe.com
No. 2 Sacramento, Calif.
Net inflow 4Q19: 5,675 Share of searches from nonresidents: 44.1% Top origin metro area: San Francisco
Andy - stock.adobe.com
No. 1 Phoenix, Ariz.
Net inflow 4Q19: 6,509 Share of searches from nonresidents: 33.9% Top origin metro area: Los Angeles
While some industry forecasts predicted origination volumes would fall 7% quarter-to-quarter in 4Q, early earnings numbers from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citi and PNC Bank show they were down just 3% when purchased loans are excluded.
The FHFA and Treasury will allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to hold more capital as part of the Trump administration's plans to release the companies from conservatorship. But it is unclear whether the incoming Biden administration will keep the mortgage giants on the same reform path.