Bankers most worried about cybersecurity, economy: Survey

• Key insight: Cyber risk and the potential for an economic downturn are the leading concerns amongst bankers surveyed by fintech IntraFi.
• Supporting data: Cyber risk topped bankers' concerns, with 29% of respondents citing cyber as a top concern, followed by 22% for an economic downturn and 17% for risks related to continuity at the Federal Reserve.
• Forward look: For now, most bankers say the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and staffing levels will stay limited.

Cyber threats and a troubling economic outlook are now top concerns for community bank executives, according to IntraFi's Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2026. 

The survey's results show that executives' attitudes about the economy have soured after months of geopolitical turmoil and the growing threat that artificial intelligence-empowered fraudsters pose to cybersecurity. 

"With the instability in Washington right now, an economic downturn feels imminent," one banker wrote anonymously.

A plurality of bankers, roughly 29%, cited cybersecurity and fraud as the top threat to their institutions, with many pointing to a growing "cyber asymmetry" between fraudsters and their targets brought about by AI. An economic downturn was the next most-cited concern at 22%, while 17% pointed to uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership and monetary policy. At the same time, the share of bankers reporting improved economic conditions or expectations fell for the first time in a year.

As the U.S. conflict with Iran has gone on for nearly two months, bankers have become increasingly concerned that a prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could send negative ripples across the broader economy — including second-order effects on bank balance sheets. For now, the bulk of those risks remain prospective, according to analysts, and bank earnings suggest that consumers are continuing to borrow and buy. 

Of those bankers surveyed who cited an economic downturn as their top concern, fears of growing fragility to the global economy and the negative effect of future Washington policies are the leading sources of those concerns.

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"An economic downturn always has the biggest impact on a bank's short-term earnings and balance sheet health," another anonymous banker wrote. "Given the current yield curves, DC policies, stock market indications, housing starts, and other indicators, we are primed for a downturn." 

Bankers' concerns about cybersecurity come amid the revelation that AI company Anthropic's new model, Mythos — a highly advanced and restricted system — can quickly find and exploit cracks in software defenses across nearly every operating system and web browser. These are known as zero-day vulnerabilities, because they are unknown to developers.

"We are experiencing some level of fraud virtually every day and it is appearing in checks, ACH, and debit cards," said one survey respondent. "The growth of A.I. used by the perpetrators will make this an even more challenging area."  

The impact of AI on the labor market appears to be a less pressing concern for bank executives, with staffing trends remaining relatively stable for now. This comes even after the financial industry jobs dropped by 15,000 in March, driven by a loss in finance and insurance; employment in the financial services market is down 77,000 jobs from its peak in May 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest jobs report. Even so, most surveyed bankers do not expect large-scale employee replacement from AI just yet.

Over the past three years, 47% of banks said they kept headcount roughly flat, while 39% increased staffing and just 13% reduced it. Looking ahead, 70% of executives say they expect AI to have little impact on staffing, though about a quarter anticipate reductions tied to automation.