Mortgage rate movement reports vary this week

Depending on the product — and the source analyzing the data — mortgage rates moved in different directions this week. For one, the 30-year fixed went up 4 basis points while the 15-year dropped by 0.05 percentage points, according to Freddie Mac.

The government-sponsored enterprise's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year FRM at 6.43% as of April 27, compared with 6.39% the prior week and 5.1% one year earlier. The Freddie Mac survey data comes from applications put through Loan Product Advisor.

By contrast, Zillow, which puts out rates based on offers to consumers through its website, had the 30-year FRM at 6.25% on Thursday morning, up 1 basis point from Wednesday but down from 6.43% a week ago.

Another source of rate data, from Black Knight Optimal Blue, put the 30-year conforming FRM at 6.4% on April 26, versus 6.54% seven days earlier.

For the week-to-week time frame, Freddie Mac's analysis found that the 30-year FRM fell to 5.71% from 5.76%, while it was up from 4.4% for the same period in 2022.

This took place even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.43% on April 26, 17 basis points lower than the 3.6% it closed at on April 19.

But as of 11:30 a.m. eastern time on Thursday morning, the 10-year increased by 0.08 percentage points. It's evidence of some volatility resulting from investors parsing statements from Federal Reserve Board members regarding future rate hikes as well as inflation data.

"The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased modestly for the second straight week, but with the rate of inflation decelerating rates should gently decline over the course of 2023," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, in a press release. "The prospect of lower mortgage rates for the remainder of the year should be welcome news to borrowers who are looking to purchase a home."

The U.S. gross domestic product slowed to 1.1% annual increase in the first quarter, Commerce Department data released Thursday morning reported.

A slowing economy pushed mortgage rates down, said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, in a statement issued late Wednesday.

Among the next key data releases is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, coming out on Friday.

"Investors are hungry for more concrete evidence that inflation is waning," Divounguy said. "A decline in the PCE price index…should send longer term yields, including mortgage rates, downward."

But without a "meaningful decline" in core PCE data, 10-year Treasury yields — and as a result mortgage rates — will remain high, Divounguy said.