Economic indicators

The American Bankers Association’s credit conditions index fell sharply, as economists foresaw dampening loan demand. The weaker outlook lines up with major bank CEOs’ increased worries over a possible recession.

An American Bankers Association panel of experts predicted much slower economic growth, but agreed that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession over the next couple of years.

In a recent survey, just over half of community bankers expressed concern that the central bank will harm the U.S. economy by raising rates too fast in its quest to contain inflation.

The 2022 origination outlook was dropped by $172 billion and for 2023, economists at the government-sponsored enterprise made a $226 billion reduction.

This group is decidedly less ambivalent about the housing market — and saving and investing — than their millennial brothers and sisters.

It’s not just potential buyers and sellers holding this perception; over four-in-10 real estate agents agree with that sentiment.

Modest reductions were made to the 2021 and 2022 outlooks, although the government-sponsored enterprise did boost purchase expectations for this year.

About 40% of likely purchasers are delaying or cancelling their activity, a Redfin survey found.

While 2021 projections are unchanged from November, they are 2% higher than what the organization's economic forecast in October.

Recent existing home sales have been stronger than expected, but next year could see a market held back by the inventory shortage and higher rates.

Similarities between the current rate of appreciation and what took place between 2004 and 2006 are mitigated by changes in the housing market.

Though unlikely to derail a hot housing market, another surge in COVID-19 cases could cloud the outlook for economic growth, analysts said.

The likelihood that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target contributed to the government-sponsored agency’s decision to dial back its 2022 outlook.

The government-sponsored enterprise also expects purchase and refinancing volumes to drop in 2022.

Meanwhile, investors await word from the central bank regarding monetary policy, as limited housing supply continues to drive prices upward.

Lower rates and higher home prices will boost dollar volume although few home sales will cut into purchase volume growth.

With talk of an overheating economy abating, economists see few signals that would indicate near-term rate spikes.

It may be a long time before corporate travel resembles anything close to normal. While most organizations keep their generic travel bans in place, which increasingly look likely to last for the remainder of the year, what are the predictions around restarting business travel in the near future?

Policymakers may not wait until their mid-month meeting and could act with other central banks.

The industry could see a boost in mortgage lending from regulatory changes, but other factors may slow growth.