Treasurys

A pullback from US Treasuries sent longer-term yields surging by the most since pandemic struck in 2020, deepening losses in what's supposed to be a haven from financial turmoil and roiling markets abroad as investors sell government bonds to raise cash.

Treasuries gained for a sixth straight session. Morgan Stanley say the 10-year has scope to fall back below 4% if the prevailing view on the Fed shifts.

The confabs are a sign that Republicans are getting serious about negotiating the contours of a tax deal, even as the House and Senate are pursuing separate strategies.

The overall price drop was offset by interest payments, allowing a broad gauge of the Treasury market to post a gain of about 0.7% this year through Dec. 30.

The economist, who runs Roubini Macro Associates, is positioning for a curve steepener, a popular Treasuries trade where the gap between long- and short-dated yields widens.

Tuesday's declines lifted yields by one to four basis points across maturities after Trump said he'd impose additional 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada.

Treasury yields rose the day after President-elect Donald Trump was picked. The short-term result: It's harder for commercial real estate lenders and borrowers to find common ground.

Wall Street are paring back bets on aggressive policy easing as the U.S. economy remains robust and Fed officials have sounded a cautious tone over the pace of future rate decreases.

Treasuries rallied the most in two weeks as tumbling oil prices eased concerns about an uptick in inflation.

Treasuries are sliding after companies added more jobs than expected last month, sending a mixed signal to traders who are watching the labor market for signs the Federal Reserve needs to aggressively cut interest rates.

There's been a marked change in trading volume over the past four years at that time as well as a drop in transaction costs that coincide with the growth of passive funds that track index changes.

Treasuries have returned 1.7% this month through Aug. 28, on pace for a fourth straight monthly gain, according to the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index.

Both Vanguard Group Inc. and Fidelity International have said a Republican sweep in November would pose the greatest risk to bonds by expanding Trump's ability to implement his agenda, some of which is also expected to contribute to higher inflation.

Investors are set to start the week scrambling to decide if President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris increases or decreases Donald Trump's chances of regaining power. 

The resilience of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism the economy has withstood the worst of Fed tightening.

The U.S. 30-year yield reached the highest level in a month on Monday amid predictions that a Trump presidency would lead to higher inflation.

Potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates is the growing view that the economy's so-called neutral rate — a theoretical level of borrowing costs that neither stimulates nor slows growth — is much higher than policymakers are currently projecting. 

Wall Street saw another busy session of bond sales as issuers looked to borrow before key economic data later this week.

In the derivatives markets, they've started pricing in that the Fed will carry out just four — or five at the most — quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, only slightly more than the three penciled in by policymakers.

Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.