Mortgage rates settle above 6%, lowest in over three years

Mortgage rates ended the week just above 6%, the lowest point since September 2022, although one other indicator had the 30-year fixed under that level for a couple of days.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell 8 basis points this week to 6.01% as of Feb. 19, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found. A year ago at this time, this product averaged 6.85%. It has not been under 6% since Sept. 8, 2022, during a brief stop at that level ahead of a subsequent rise.

Meanwhile, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.35%, down 9 basis points from last week's 5.44%. For the same time period in 2025, it was at 6.04%.

"This lower rate environment is not only improving affordability for prospective homebuyers, it's also strengthening the financial position of homeowners," Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a press release. "Over the past year, refinance application activity has more than doubled, enabling many recent buyers to reduce their annual mortgage payments by thousands of dollars."

What other rate trackers are reporting

Data from Optimal Blue showed the 30-year conforming FRM at 5.97% for both last Friday and Tuesday. But on Wednesday, the 30-year climbed back over the 6% mark.

This was the lowest the product has averaged since President Trump's $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase pronouncement.

During the week, the 10-year Treasury yield — one of the instruments used to help price 30-year FRMs — got as low as 4.03% during Tuesday's trading. It has not been under 6% since Sept. 8, 2022, in a period where rates moved from the pandemic-related lows of the 2%-3% range to top 7% just two months later.

But on Wednesday, the 10-year closed at 4.08% and as of 11 a.m. on Thursday morning, it was up to 4.09%.

Why rates moved like they did this week

A "softer-than-expected" Consumer Price Index report released last Friday contributed to the downward pressure on bond yields, Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, wrote in a Wednesday evening commentary. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and this limits short-term rate cuts, although the balance of risks is shifting towards a cooling labor market and away from potentially overheating inflation.

"That said, rates could retrace somewhat," Ng wrote. "Minutes from the January Fed meeting indicated that some members felt 'additional policy easing may not be warranted' until inflation is clearly back on track.

Lender Price data on the National Mortgage News website Thursday morning had the 30-year FRM at just under 6.1%, slightly lower than the 6.11% from the previous week.

Rates on the conforming 30-year FRM fell by 4 basis points to 6.17% for the period ended Feb.13, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Application Survey reported.

Secondary market impacts as rates fall

But this decline is not fully shifting the broader market towards refinance activity yet, said Tim Torline, president of investments at Ducenta Squared in a Wednesday commentary on the MBA data.

While refinance application volume is higher versus comparative periods, "activity is likely to be moderate in the near-term, with the market likely on hold until mortgage rates fall below the 6% psychological threshold," Torline said.

For mortgage-backed securities investors, it "heightens prepayment risks that the market has been tracking while rates oscillate in this tight range," he said. "Accelerated prepayments shorten durations and push reinvestments into lower yields."

Last week's dip in rates led to a strong rebound in refinance application volume, added Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO in a Thursday morning statement.

"While purchase applications declined, they continued to run ahead of last year's pace, and we expect lower mortgage rates and the seasonal uptick in new listings to support homebuyer demand in the weeks ahead," Broeksmit continued.

Meanwhile, January pending home-sales data recorded a decline in the market, which Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, attributed to normal seasonality.

"Even with a slow start to the year, we remain cautiously optimistic that lower rates, improving supply, and cooler price growth will make 2026 more constructive for buyers," Williams said in a commentary.

"Importantly, other leading indicators are moving in a better direction — purchase mortgage applications are near their highest level in roughly three years — suggesting underlying demand is gradually firming as we head into spring."