Economic indicators

Nearly all Fed participants support additional increases in interest rates in 2023, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President as an exception who has called for holding steady for the rest of this year and "well into 2024."

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index recorded a little more optimism in July.

Researchers at the government-sponsored enterprise also maintained their outlook for a modest recession but moved anticipated onset to the fourth quarter this year.

Gross domestic product is now forecast to only contract in the final three months of the year, and it's projected to merely stagnate in the third quarter instead of shrink, a June survey showed. 

"We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks," he wrote in prepared remarks to be delivered to the House Financial Services Committee.

A larger share of sellers were optimistic in May, but the percentage of enthusiastic buyers fell, according to Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index.

Treasury bills maturing in the first half of June rallied as trading resumed following the Memorial Day holiday, after a deal to lift the debt ceiling eased concern over the prospect of a calamitous U.S. default. 

Recent bank troubles mean agency MBS, multifamily and jumbo mortgage activity are set for changes, analysts said at an industry conference.

Bets are piling up on a wide range of trajectories for the Fed's path — with some expecting it to mount a major about-face as growth stalls and others hedging the risk it will tighten policy further as elevated inflation persists.

Heightened worries about the strength of consumers and the global economy have been put on hold — at least for now — after some of the world's best known companies delivered a slew of better-than expected numbers.

Economists lowered their projections for the consumer price index as well as the personal consumption expenditures price index for every quarter through the first half of 2024, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey.

The U.S. economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in its survey of regional business contacts.

An estimated 70% of goods transported in steel boxes on giant ships do so under long-term contracts and those deals were renegotiated in 2021 and 2022 at much higher rates. Big retailers and manufacturers may not be seeing enough shipping-rate reductions yet to warrant slashing prices further.

The Pittsburgh bank posted a solid profit and said that it expects continued loan growth. But the pace of business expansion could slow alongside an economic downturn.

Significantly fewer households expected to be in worse shape in the coming year than was the case last summer, according to a December survey. The results are a positive sign for banks at the start of earnings season.

As challenges will persist in the year ahead, the industry still plans on development, growth and new technology

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called October's positive inflation report in the U.S. "a good reading," but cautioned against relying too much on one data point.

The Federal Reserve appeared closer to moderating aggressive interest rate increases after welcome news on inflation, with three officials backing a downshift even as they stressed that policy needs to stay tight.

The American consumer is "in good shape" and spending more this month than a year earlier, even amid inflation, jittery markets and international tensions, according to Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will remain aggressive in fighting inflation despite promising economic data.