Employment data

The May uptick in nonbank housing-finance payrolls came almost entirely from lender hiring as loan broker numbers plateaued and construction demand persisted.

Staff retained or added for the spring homebuying season has stemmed the tide of layoffs for now, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest figures.

Lenders and brokers have slashed two-thirds of the positions added since 2020, but the question now is whether reducing staffing to the level seen that year will be enough.

But that was not enough to offset the fourth consecutive monthly decline in total nonbank industry jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The industry has cut tens of thousands of positions since January, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates.

But the overall employment picture was bright in July, returning to a level last seen before the pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data found.

And as long as broader unemployment remains low and inflation stays high, monetary policymakers will likely keep raising short-term rates in ways that could challenge home lending.

But several companies have cuts pending, and overall employment remains strong enough to keep putting some upward pressure on rates.

The March estimates for payrolls of nonbanks involved in home lending confirm widespread anecdotal reports of industry layoffs, but strength in broader financial-services hiring could pick up the slack.

Broader hiring remained relatively strong and unemployment fell to a pandemic low during March, but a yield curve inversion — which can signal a recession — is concerning some.

But recent rate drops in response to the Ukraine invasion and increases in broader employment suggest another uptick in housing finance payrolls is not out of the question.

Employment numbers suggest that interest in home purchases is bearing up well despite some limits on consumer spending and normalization in the mortgage market after two banner years.

Total U.S. jobs came in below consensus estimates in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But the latest employment report also reveals that if construction hiring remains sufficiently strong, home purchase originations are on track to grow to $1.7 trillion from $1.6 trillion next year.

The deal between the two fintechs aims to cut mortgage decisioning times for lenders and expand access to financing for consumers.

Plans to taper rate stimulus could further dampen industry employment, depending on the extent to which decreased volume is offset by staffing needs driven by the shift to work-intensive purchase loans.

But overall improvement in September employment numbers are likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to begin tapering their asset purchases.

The gain reinforces other estimates that suggest more work-intensive purchase originations have spurred companies to increase staffing. Hiring addressing changing needs in servicing may come next.

The tool is designed to help lenders adjust their underwriting to address the growing faction of non-W2 employees, which is expected to make up half of the workforce by 2027.

The plateau in non-depository estimates for new jobs in the field reported Friday follows anecdotal accounts of reorganization by banks and nonbanks in the past week.